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Economic Indicators

Mortgage decision aid — Canada

S&P 500
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Via SPY ETF · Source: Twelve Data
TSX Canada (EWC)
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EWC — iShares MSCI Canada ETF (US-listed proxy, priced USD) · Source: Twelve Data
Crude Oil (USO ETF)
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USO tracks WTI crude · Source: Twelve Data
CAD / USD
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CAD/USD · Source: Twelve Data
BoC Overnight Rate
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Bank of Canada policy rate
Inflation (CPI)
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All-items CPI · Source: Statistics Canada
GoC 5yr Bond Yield
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Drives fixed mortgage pricing · Source: Bank of Canada
GoC 10yr Bond Yield
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Yield curve signal · Source: Bank of Canada
Overall read
Gathering signals…
How to read this
BoC rate risingVariable payments rise immediately. Strong case to lock in fixed.
BoC rate fallingVariable payments drop. Stay variable and ride cuts down.
5yr yield risingFixed mortgage rates follow in weeks. Lock before they do.
5yr yield fallingFixed rate pressure easing. No rush to lock.
10yr < 5yr (inverted spread)Yield curve inverted — recession signal. Rate cuts likely ahead.
CPI rising above 2%Inflation above target. BoC less likely to cut, may raise.
CPI falling below 2%Inflation cooling. BoC more likely to hold or cut.
S&P / TSX falling hardRecession signals rising. BoC likely to cut. May favour variable.
Oil (USO) spikingInflation pressure builds. Rates may stay higher longer.
CAD weakeningEconomic stress signal. Watch for BoC response.
Card Value shown Sparkline plots Green Red
S&P 500 SPY ETF closing price (USD). % change is vs previous close. Daily closing price over 30 trading days. Price higher than 30 days ago Price lower than 30 days ago
TSX Canada EWC ETF closing price (USD) — US-listed proxy for Canadian large-caps. % change is vs previous close. Daily closing price over 30 trading days. Price higher than 30 days ago Price lower than 30 days ago
Crude Oil USO ETF closing price (USD) — proxy for WTI crude. % change is vs previous close. Daily closing price over 30 trading days. Price higher than 30 days ago Price lower than 30 days ago
CAD / USD CAD/USD forex rate — how many USD one Canadian dollar buys. % change is vs previous close. Daily rate over 30 trading days. CAD stronger than 30 days ago CAD weaker than 30 days ago
BoC Rate Bank of Canada target overnight rate (%). Change shown is vs previous decision. No sparkline — rate changes only 8 times per year. — —
Inflation (CPI) All-items CPI year-over-year % change (Statistics Canada, monthly). Month-over-month % change also shown. YoY inflation rate (%) over the last 13 months. Plots the pace of inflation, not the raw index level. YoY rate lower than 13 months ago (inflation cooling) YoY rate higher than 13 months ago (inflation rising)
GoC 5yr Yield Government of Canada 5-year bond yield (%). Change shown is vs previous business day. Daily yield over last 30 business days. Yield lower than 30 days ago (fixed rates easing) Yield higher than 30 days ago (fixed rates rising)
GoC 10yr Yield Government of Canada 10-year bond yield (%), with 10yr–5yr spread. Change shown is vs previous business day. Daily yield over last 30 business days. Yield lower than 30 days ago Yield higher than 30 days ago