BoC rate risingVariable payments rise immediately. Strong case to lock in fixed.
BoC rate fallingVariable payments drop. Stay variable and ride cuts down.
5yr yield risingFixed mortgage rates follow in weeks. Lock before they do.
5yr yield fallingFixed rate pressure easing. No rush to lock.
10yr < 5yr (inverted spread)Yield curve inverted — recession signal. Rate cuts likely ahead.
CPI rising above 2%Inflation above target. BoC less likely to cut, may raise.
CPI falling below 2%Inflation cooling. BoC more likely to hold or cut.
S&P / TSX falling hardRecession signals rising. BoC likely to cut. May favour variable.
Oil (USO) spikingInflation pressure builds. Rates may stay higher longer.
CAD weakeningEconomic stress signal. Watch for BoC response.